COP31: Betting on electricity to break the climate deadlock

Electrification is expected to be on the COP30 agenda starting Tuesday, a day dedicated to energy. The conference presidency is expected to call on countries to voluntarily commit to the 35-35 target. Several countries – including EU members – have already indicated that they would answer favourably.

This should be a first symbolic step before serious discussions start.

“Turkey is also pushing for this issue to be debated as part of the official negotiations and thus be included in the final COP agreement,” Febvre said.

Countries will then need to find a common objective, as the final text needs a consensus in order to be adopted.

Popularising the use of electricity

“In recent years, electricity has already been accounting for an increasingly large share of the global energy mix,” said Gareth Redmond-King, head of international programme at the UK-based non-profit Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.

By the end of 2024, it accounted for 23 percent of final energy consumption, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

“At the national level, some countries are ahead of the curve,” Redmond-King said. “Japan, for example, has already reached 35 percent of its energy from electricity. China is approaching 30 percent. The EU and the US are in line with the global average at respectively 23 and 22 percent.”

In France – which has just announced a substantial electrification plan – electricity accounts for about 27 percent of final energy consumption.

Given these figures, is the goal of 35 percent by 2035 achievable? And can it really make a difference for the climate?

According to an analysis from the Climate Action Tracker, if current policies remain unchanged, electricity’s share of energy consumption would reach 28 percent by 2035, with the transportation sector lagging far behind.

“It would require political will and investment from governments, but this goal seems achievable,” said Redmond-King. “Driven by China, in particular, electrification technologies have really taken off in recent years. We’ve seen this, for example, with the widespread adoption of electric cars and heat pumps … And more and more industries are making the shift, attracted by energy that is becoming increasingly cheaper compared to fossil fuels.”

“But for this energy transition to be fair, the most developed countries will have to agree to support countries in the Global South. And the private sector will also have to agree to get involved,” said Febvre.

As for the impact on the fight against climate change, it will depend on the actual ambition of states, insisted the two experts, who will be keeping a close eye on the negotiations in Antalya.

To begin with, “35 percent of electrification is interesting, but it must be a floor, not a ceiling,”said Febvre.

Above all, the source of that electricity will need to be looked at: renewable energy, nuclear power or fossil fuels? Febvre expects a “battle of words” behind the scenes at the COP.

“When drafting the agreement, we’ll have to see if countries can reach a consensus among advocates of ‘clean’ energy – that is, renewables and nuclear power – those pushing for ‘green’ energy using only renewables, and those who also want to maintain fossil fuels,” she said.

In other words, “electrification must go hand in hand with decarbonisation,” Redmond-King summarised.

However, India – as well as much of the African continent and oil-producing countries – would surely reject any mention of “clean” or “green” electricity. On the other hand, the EU is likely to push for electricity to come primarily from decarbonised energy sources, including nuclear power.

For now, the text proposed by the Turkish presidency calls for increasing “electricity’s share of total final energy consumption... in line with pathways consistent with keeping 1.5°C alive and complementary to efforts to expand renewable energy and improve energy efficiency.”

Therefore, nothing explicitly states that the electricity must come from sources that do not emit greenhouse gases. The text can be understood as a call to expand electrification as a whole, while also making efforts to develop renewable energy.

This is exactly Turkey’s model. According to the global energy think-tank Ember, 43 percent of Turkey’s electricity came from clean sources in 2025, including 22 percent from wind and solar power and 16 percent from hydropower, a record figure. But in parallel, the country has continued to build new coal-fired power plants and has not set a formal target for phasing out fossil fuels. The two co-presidents of COP31 are, in fact, historically linked by a coal agreement.

Energy sobriety

Beyond electricity sources, the challenge will also revolve around the amount of energy produced, Febvre said. In 2025, for the first time, renewable energy sources generated more electricity than coal. But in parallel, fossil fuels also increased.

This is due to energy demand continuously rising, whether it’s to power air conditioners or heaters during extreme weather events, or the data centres essential to the development of artificial intelligence.

“Amid all this, we also have to adopt a real energy conservation plan,” said Febvre. “It’s no longer a matter of adding this energy to our current resources, but of permanently replacing fossil fuels.”

The debate is therefore shaping up to be heated. Even if COP31 were to produce an ambitious commitment to electrification, the hardest part would still lie ahead.

“We’ll have to take action to make the plan a reality,” Febvre said. “But this will have to be done fairly, taking into account local realities and the challenges faced by different countries.”

This article has been adapted from the original in French.